World-Wide Integrated Crisis Early Warning System
As one of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering (ASD(R&E))’s Human Social, Culture and Behavior (HSCB) flagship programs, Integrated Crisis Early Warning System (ICEWS) has developed and is deploying a comprehensive, integrated, automated, generalizable, and validated system to monitor, assess, and forecast national and international crises in a way that supports decision-making on how to mitigate them. ICEWS provides Combatant Commanders (COCOMs), the IC, and various government agencies with a powerful, systematic capability to anticipate, track, and respond to stability challenges around the world.
There are four primary elements to ICEWS:
- iDATA: The process that allows the provisioning of the models in near real-time from a variety of international, regional, national and local new sources (over 6000). More than 38 million multilingual news stories over the past 25 years are processed to extract [who, did-what, to-whom, when, and where] from each sentence in these stories creating a right 25-year “history of the world”.
- iTRACE: provides situation understanding through analysis and visualization of the news event history trends and patterns generated by iDATA. Time series, map-based views, trends and pattern analytics, relationship matrices, and other visualizations are provided with drill-down to underlying events and news stories. iTRACE capabilities are currently available in ISPAN GAP-CIE Program of Record supported by USSTRATCOM and is available on SIPR and JWICS networks.
- iCAST: mixed methods modeling approach leveraging over 80 heterogeneous model types to forecasting major instability events of interest (EOI) worldwide with greater than 80% accuracy and recall. iTRACE capabilities are currently available in ISPAN GAP-CIE Program of Record supported by USSTRATCOM and is available on SIPR and JWICS networks.
- iSENT: Measures population attitudes and perception on issues, people, and events from social media through sentiment analysis from blogs, tweets, and Facebook. Sentiment propagation across the internet and identification of key sites and people in shaping opinion dynamics is also provided. iSENT capabilities are currently in transition discussions.
The ICEWS team combines experts, including social scientists, computer scientists, operational users, and subject matter experts from large and small businesses, universities, and government.
Elements of the ICEWS datasets have been made available publically for further unclassified research purposes on the Harvard Dataverse.